控制图法预警技术在青岛市两种传染病中的应用

A study on early detection of control chart method of two diseases in Qingdao city

目的采用控制图法预警技术对青岛市痢疾和水痘两种传染病进行预警界值的计算和分析,以提高这两种传染病疫情监测的预警能力。方法利用2009-2013年青岛市痢疾、水痘报告发病数据建立预警数据库,应用控制图法建立预警模型,参照"流行标准",通过计算比较灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、约登指数,优选出最佳预警界值。结果通过对预警结果中灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值及约登指数作整体分析,预警痢疾选用P93作为预警界值比较好,灵敏度、特异度和阳性预测值均是100.00%,约登指数等于1.00;而预警水痘选用P79作为预警界值比较好,灵敏度、特异度还有阳性预测值达到最大值(100.00%),约登指数也是1。结论传染病控制图法预警技术对青岛市痢疾、水痘有较高的预警功效,预警界值分别为P93和P79。

Objective To determine the alert thresholds for dysentery and chicken pox,so as to improve the efficacy of the early warning system for the two infectious disease. Methods By using reported incidence data of malaria and chicken pox in Qingdao city during 2009-2013 to build warning data base,control chart was used to detect outbreak of epidemics,according to the epidemic standard,after comparing and calculating sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value and Youden index,the optimal model and thresholds were finally determined. Results By taking into account of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and Youden index,93 percentile（ P93） and 79 percentile（ P79） were chosen as the optimal alert threshold for dysentery and chicken pox in Qingdao city,by using these two alert threshold,the sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value were all 100% and the Youden index were all 1. Conclusions Control method can be used for early alert models of dysentery and chicken pox,the alert threshold were P93 and P79.