收入对城镇居民食物消费模式影响研究——基于两阶段EASI模型估计

Impact of Income Increases of Urban Residents' on Food Consumption Patterns: Based on Two-Phase EASI Model

利用1987—2012年30省市城镇居民宏观食品消费数据,采用两阶段EASI模型估算城镇居民食品需求弹性,并预测城镇居民食品消费的演变趋势。研究结论表明:与QUAIDS模型相比,EASI模型更能准确拟合中国城镇居民食品消费趋势。预计人均可支配收入达到12万元时,家庭食品需求数量将会达到饱和点。届时,城镇居民食品消费数量基本不变,食品质量将显著提高,食品支出份额将缓慢增加。未来我国城镇居民热量来源于粮食的比例将逐步下降,来源于肉类和水产类食品的比例将逐步增加,并随着收入提高最终达到一种动植物消费比例协调的动态均衡。

This study selects 30 provinces and cities from 1987—2012 urban residents’ macro food consumption data,using the two-stage EASI model to estimate urban residents’ food demand elasticity,and predicts the evolution of the urban residents’ food consumption trend. The research results indicate that compared with the QUAIDS model,the EASI model fits Chinese urban residents’ food consumption trend more accurately. It is expected that when the per capita disposable income reaches 120 thousand yuan,the family food demand will reach the saturation point in quantity. By then,urban residents will significantly improve their food quality,and the food expenditure share will slowly increase. Changes of Chinese citizens’ food consumption structure basically conform to the Bennett’s laws. The urban residents will gradually decline their calories from grain proportionally,but gradually increase those from meat and aquatic products proportionally. Moreover,as incomes rise,plant and animal consumption proportion will reach dynamic equilibrium.