时空效应下能源要素和经济增长的传导路径研究——基于半参数空间模型的经验分析

Transmission between Energy Factor and Economic Growth from the Perspective of Spatial-Temporal Effects——Based on Semi-parametric Spatial Model

以经济变量和经济活动模型的空间相关性为起点,选取中国2001-2016年30个省份的数据样本,构建静态、动态及半参数空间模型刻画FDI非线性、能源消费与经济增长作用效应。研究表明,人力资本、技术和能源驱动的自身经济增长存在显著的正向空间溢出效应,而在非均衡的区域资源配比下,人才、技术显示负的经济产出空间溢出效应,邻近省份的经济发展能够有效节约能源,资本错配会降低经济效率,FDI的非线性路径刻画出了正向、负向及零的经济效应区间。最后,从创新人才培育、新能源开发、资本结构优化及外商直接投资高效利用等方面提出了相应的建议。

Starting from the spatial correlation test on economic variables and economic activity models, this paper selects data from 30 provinces in China during 2001-2016, through the construction of static, dynamic and semi-parametric spatial models to describe non-linear correlation path from FDI on economic growth and global and local effects of energy consumption on economic growth. The research shows that there is a significant positive spatial spillover effect on human capital, technology and energy driven economic growth, and the negative economic output spatial effect of talent, technology and energy is presented on the part of the unbalanced regional resource allocation;capital mismatching causes capital obstruction to restrain economy;FDI nonlinear path shows the intervals among positive, negative and zero economic effect range. Finally, this paper puts forward the corresponding suggestions as introduction of innovative talent cultivation, new energy development, capital structure optimization and the high-efficiency utilization of FDI.