综合评估县域配电系统投资与发展状况的新方法

A New Comprehensive Evaluation Method for Investment and Development Status of County Distribution System

县域配电系统投资与发展状况综合评估是配电系统规划和投资需求分析的一个重要环节,也是值得研究的重要问题。县域配电系统评估指标具有混合多属性特征,为此首先提出一种面向对象的综合评估指标体系;然后采用组合权重法和自适应变权重机制确定指标体系的权重,其中组合权重法将指标权重分解为排序权重和分类权重,以分别反映评估指标的不同属性和不同评估对象之间指标样本值的整体差异对评估结果的影响程度,并分别借助序关系分析法和投影寻踪原理确定,进而再根据最小鉴别信息原理确定组合权重;之后采用自适应变权重机制对存在指标值严重偏离正常范围的评估对象进行权重修正;最后采用某省的5个县域配电系统实例对所提出的方法进行测试,并借助雷达图寻找电网建设的薄弱环节。仿真结果表明:所提出的评估方法能够合理反映县域配电系统的投资与发展状况。

The comprehensive assessment of the investment and development status of county distribution system is an important part in distribution system planning and investment demanding analysis,and is also an important problem to be addressed. Considering that the assessment indices for county distribution system have the feature of multiple attributes,we firstly present an object-based comprehensive assessment index system. Then,we use the combination weighting method and the self-adaptive weighting correction to determine the weights of indices. The index weights are divided into ranking weights and classification weights in the combination weighting method,in order to respectively reflect the influence degrees of the overall difference of index sample values with different properties and evaluation objects on the evaluation results,which are determined by order relation analysis method and projection pursuit principle respectively,to determine the combination weight according to the principle of minimum identification information. Next,we adopt self-adaptive weighting correction for evaluation object weight whose indicator values seriously deviate from the normal range. Finally,we employ 5 county distribution systems in a province to demonstrate the proposed method,and use radar chart to find the weak links of power grid construction. The simulation results showthat the proposed evaluation method can reasonably reflect the investment and development status of county power distribution system.