城市关键基础设施体系毁伤恢复力评估方法研究

Resilience Assessment of Urban Critical Infrastructure Systems

研究城市关键基础设施体系在各类毁伤下的恢复能力评估方法。基于现有恢复力研究中考虑因素的不完整性,提出了"恢复程度"这一关键因素,同时构建了包含毁伤概率、毁伤后果、恢复速率和恢复程度4个主要因素在内的城市关键基础设施体系恢复力定量评估理论框架。在恢复力技术和组织两个维度分别设计体系性能时程响应函数,实现了恢复力在技术和组织双维度上的评估。在以江苏省连云港市区供水网络为例的案例研究中,依据所提出的评估框架构建体系恢复力评估仿真流程,对特定毁伤场景下的体系毁伤恢复力进行分析,得出关键基础设施体系毁伤恢复力在不同恢复条件下的变化规律。

In order to assess the damage recovery capability of urban critical infrastructure systems,a new framework for assessing the damage resilience of urban critical infrastructures is presented. Unlike previous assessment approaches which only consider three resilience feature—damage probability,damage consequence and recovery speed,the proposed framework includes a newly proposed feature,named ‘recovery degree',which can quantify the differences in system performance(pre-disaster vs. post-recovery). Two time-dependent performance response functions are designed to assess the resiliences in the technical and organizational dimensions,respectively. In this study,the proposed framework is test using the municipal water supply network in Lianyungang as a case study. Through this case study,a simulation procedure for assessing damage resilience is constructed based on the framework,and the variation rule of resilience under different recovery conditions is thoroughly investigated.