收入不确定性与居民消费——以房价为门槛变量的实证研究

Income Uncertainty and Household Consumption:An Empirical Study on Housing Price as Threshold Variable

党的十九大报告明确指出要发挥消费对经济发展的基础性作用,但当前我国居民消费水平相对较低,其中收入不确定是重要原因之一,而房价的波动又加剧了收入的不确定性。运用分位数回归法并建立以房价为门槛变量的模型,检验了我国2003—2016年不同房价区间的收入不确定性对居民消费的影响。分位数回归结果表明,收入不确定性对居民消费产生了显著的抑制作用;门槛回归结果进一步表明,在低房价区间和高房价区间,收入不确定性对消费均具有显著的抑制作用,而在中等房价区间,收入不确定性对消费具有显著的促进作用。因此,构建完善的住房供需市场,实施稳定的收入分配政策和税收政策,扭转当前住房公积金错配是促进消费的有效举措。

The report of the 19 th National Congress has made it clear that consumption should play a fundamental role in economic development.However,China’s current consumption level is relatively low,and income uncertainty is one of the important reasons.Using quantile regression and threshold model by setting housing price as the threshold variable,this paper examines the impact of income uncertainty on household consumption in different housing price interval?in China ranging from 2003 to2016.Quantile regression shows that income uncertainty has a significant inhibitory effect on household consumption.The threshold regression result further shows that in the interval of low and high housing prices,income uncertainty has a significant inhibitory effect on household consumption and in the range of medium housing price,income uncertainty has a significantly stimulative effect on household consumption.Therefore,the construction of a perfect housing supply and demand market,the implementation of stable income distribution policies and tax policies and the reversal of the current housing fund mismatch can effectively promote the current consumption.