陕西省交通能源碳排放测算及影响因素分析

Measurement and influence factor analysis on the carbon emission of transportation industryin Shaanxi Province,China

目的基于2000-2013年陕西省交通能源消费数据,探讨影响陕西省交通能源消费碳排放变化的因素及其贡献率,为实现低碳交通提供理论参考。方法测算分析交通碳排放量,运用LMDI分解方法构建交通能源碳排放因素分解模型,对陕西省交通碳排放影响因素进行定量分析。结果 (1)交通能源碳排放总量总体上呈逐年上升趋势,随着碳排放强度明显下降,在2013年实现负增长;(2)2000-2013年间除第三产业增加值的累积效应为正值外,能源结构、能源强度、交通运输业经济份额的累积效应均为负值;(3)从逐年效应来看,第三产业增加值对交通碳排放增加有最大的拉动作用,能源强度效应则有较强的抑制作用。结论可以通过保持交通运输业合理的经济份额,提高能源利用率,加快能源结构调整来减少交通碳排放。

Purposes—To explore the factors,which affect the carbon emission change of transportation industry in Shaanxi Province,China,and their contribution rate and to provide theoretical reference for the realization of low carbon transportation on the basis of the data of transportation energy consumption from 2000 to 2013in Shaanxi Province.Methods—The carbon emission in transport industry was measured and analyzed.A decomposition model was established with the LMDI method to quantitatively analyze the influence factors of the carbon emission in transportation industry in Shaanxi Province.Results—(1)The carbon emission in transportation industry generally increased year by year,and achieved negative growth in 2013 due to a remarkable decrease in carbon emission intensity of transportation industry;(2)Except the positive accumulative effects of the tertiary industry,the accumulative effects of energy intensity,energy structure,economic share of transportation industry were negative from 2000 to 2013;(3)In terms of yearly effects,the value-added of the tertiary industry plays active role in making the carbon emission in transportation industry increase while energy intensity has an inhibitory effect on the growth of carbon emission.Conclusions—The carbon emission can be reduced by keeping a reasonable economic share of transportation industry,increasing energy efficiency and accelerating the adjustment of energy structure.