网络舆情传播对公共政策的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Network Opinion on Public Policy

随着社会不断转型及媒介生态的变迁,中国公共政策决策机制也随之不断调适。文章基于对2003年至2013年214起舆情事件的研究,考察突发公共事件中的网络舆论传播与公共政策制定的关系,结论显示网络舆情推进的公共政策的形式以政策修改为主,主要涉及反腐倡廉、食药安全、环境污染和弱势群体保护等问题,颁布主体以中央政府居多,议题主要来源于媒体、个人和事件本身,期限以长期政策为主,辐射范围以全国性政策居多,效力整体较高。另外,受害者、连环事件、谣言、意见领袖参与都与公共政策推进有紧密关系,集群行为与公共政策推进并不显著相关,但集群行为促进了政府政策回应的时效;舆论传播强度对公共政策推进具有显著影响,其中网民对公共政策议程的干预力量主要在于情绪表达强度,媒体对公共政策议程的干预力量主要来源于新闻关注热度。

With the changes in the society and media ecology, decision mechanism of public policy shows many adjustments as well. The paper analyses the relationship between network communication and public policy making, based on 214 public events from 2003 to 2013. The conclusion indicates that: most public policies are policy revision form, related to anti-corruption, food and medicine safety, environment pollution, protection of weaker group, given by central government, worked all over the country with high effect for a long time. The victims, serial events, rumors, opinion leaders were significantly correlated with the advancement of the public policy. Group behaviors' obvious effect is not on policy-making, but on policy-making efficiency. The intervention on policy making from network citizens lies in the intensity of emotional expression. Meanwhile, the media lies in hot spreading.