中国农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放测算及结构分析

Measurement and Structure Analysis on CO_2 Emissions Embodied in Agriculture Exporting Trade of China

本文运用投入产出法计算2001—2013年中国农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放量,并从农产品出口CO2排放的部门来源、能源分布以及技术系数三方面分析其结构特征。实证表明,从总体变化趋势来看,尽管农产品出口隐含碳排放占总出口贸易隐含碳排放比例较小,但农产品出口CO2排放量随出口贸易扩大不断上升,甚至超过一些工业部门。从结构特征来看,目前中国仍以中、高碳排放农产品出口为主;能源消费结构仍然不尽合理;农产品生产链上总体CO2排放水平大大上升。农产品出口结构的调整、能源利用效率的提高和农业生产技术进步,会有效降低农产品出口贸易中的隐含碳排放,达到发展低碳农业、增强农产品出口竞争力的目的。

This paper examines CO2 emissions embodied in agriculture exporting trade of China in 2001-2013 by using input-output model, and made further composition analysis on the basis of product resources, energy structure and technology index. The CO2 emissions embodied in agriculture export is increasing steadily with the expanding export scale and has even exceeded those of some industrial departments. It is found that the leading exporting agricultural products are carbon intensive ones. Coal and crude oil are the main energy sources of carbon emissions. The total CO2 emission coefficient is much higher than that of direct coefficient. With the adjustment of agricultural products export structure, improvement of agriculture technology and energy using efficiency, the CO2 emissions embodied in agriculture export will be effectively reduced.