拉美制造业的下滑与回归——以巴西、墨西哥和阿根廷为例

Decline and Recovery of Latin American Manufacturing——Data from Brazil,Mexico and Argentina

过去半个多世纪拉美制造业整体在走下坡路,产值增长率下降、占GDP的比重下滑,对经济增长的贡献越来越小。除了贸易开放带来的进口商品冲击,更主要是国内制造业并没有形成核心增长动力;初级产品出口创汇却带来"荷兰病"且长期无法自愈;制造业的产业根植性差,以及国内服务业抢夺生产要素对制造业造成"挤出"。拉美要实现制造业回归,非制度突破不可,强有力的政府干预以及培育产业工人是当务之急。

In the past 50 years,Latin American manufacturing has declined as a whole： Products value growth decreased and its proportion in GDP descended,contribution to economy growth diminished. The causes includes： domestic manufacture industries did not form the core growth engine,＂Dutch Disease＂resulted from over- reliance on primary products export cannot be self- healing,manufacturing embeddedness was poor,and manufacturing productive factors were not adequate because service industries＂snatched＂. To solve these fundamental problems and achieve manufacturing recovery must break through traditional systems,improve national govern capability and enhance governments intervention,and cultivate skilled industry workers.