褐煤煤灰流动温度预测模型研究与应用

Research and Application of Lignite Coal Ash Flow Temperature Prediction Model

利用偏最小二乘法建立褐煤煤灰流动温度预测模型。在SHELL气化炉生产过程中,应用此模型对入厂煤、输煤混配煤、气化入炉煤煤灰流动温度进行预测,同时应用国标分析方法对537组褐煤煤灰流动温度进行实测,煤灰流动温度预测值与实测值平均残差13.9℃,平均相对误差1.53%,最大预测误差为3.66%,满足Shell气化炉实际生产需求。2013年至今,使用褐煤煤灰流动温度预测模型累计报出煤灰流动温度预测数据2852批次,真正实现了预测模型的工业化应用。

By using partial least squares lignite coal ash flow temperature prediction model is established. In SHELL gasifier production process,application of this model for incoming coal,coal blending,gasification of coal ash flow temperature forecast,at the same time national standard analysis method was applied to the 537 groups of lignite coal ash flow temperature to the measured,the average residual coal ash flow temperature predicted and the measured values of 13. 9 ℃,the average relative error is 1. 53%,the maximum error of the prediction is 3. 66%,meet the demand of SHELL gasifier actual production. Use lignite coal ash flow temperature prediction model is the total quote coal ash flow temperature forecasts 2852 batch,truly achieve the prediction model of industrial application.