基于成本效用分析的电能替代实证研究

Electrical Energy Alternative Research Based on the Cost Utility Analysis

近年来的雾霾让人们逐渐意识到环境保护的重要性,国网公司基于我国"多煤、少气、贫油"的国情,提出了以电代煤的电能替代方案。本文以在电力和煤炭的使用过程中可获得的热值作为效用,以使用过程中所需要的年费用作为成本,建立了电能替代的成本效用模型,计算出实现电力和煤炭相互替代的排污费临界值,并通过一个算例进行了实证分析。分析结果表明:电价、单位电力排污量、燃煤设备寿命对排污费临界值有正向影响;煤价、单位燃煤排污量、电力设备寿命对其有负向影响。最后,在分析的基础上给出了电能替代的政策建议。

In recent years,haze makes people more and more realize the importance of environmental protection, and based on the situation of China＇ s＂ rich in coal,less gas and lean oil＂ , State Grid Corporation of China puts forward the power energy alternatives plan to replace coal by electricity. This paper take the calorific value that can be obtained in the process of electricity and coal use as the utility, annual cost in the process of use as the cost, establishs the cost utility model of electrical energy alternative, to eaculate the balanced Pollution discharge fee which can achieve and Empirical analysis is carried out through an example. Analysis results show that： the price per unit of power, unit power emissions, coal-fired equipment life has a positive impact on the critical value of pollution discharge fee; coal prices, unit coal-fired emissions, power equipment life have the negative influ- ence on the Critical value of pollution discharge fee. Finally, based on the analysis, give some suggestions about alternative energy policy.