税制变革、人口增长及其对中国历史演进的长期影响——基于“两税法”前后的考察

Tax Change,Population Growth and Its Long-term Impact on Historical Evolution Based on Semiannual Tax System

正确认识中国历史上的人口增长对理解中国经济与社会的长期变迁具有十分重要的意义。文章使用现代经济学的分析方法对中国历史上税制变革的人口效应及其长期影响进行了分析。研究表明,不但税额的变化对人口增长有很重要的影响,而且税制结构的变化也是影响人口数量的一个重要因素:(1)当税额给定时,丁税占比与长期人口水平负相关,与稳态人均产出以及稳态家庭收入正相关;(2)当税收结构给定时,税额与长期人口水平负相关,与稳态人均产出正相关,对家庭收入的长期影响则取决于丁税占比和劳动产出弹性的大小。结合历史上赋役变化的具体情况,我们预测两税法以来的税制变革倾向于释放更多的人口,并引起劳动生产率的长期下降,但是,稳态人口水平的提高却为两宋以后王朝寿命的延长提供了经济基础。文章对于分析当代税收的长期经济效应以及研究税收调整和税制改革也具有一定的启示。

It is of great importance to a correct understanding of the population growth in Chinese history for understanding the long-term economic and social changes in China.This paper studies the population and long-term effects of tax changes in Chinese history in a modern economic model.It suggests that changes not only in tax rates but also in tax structure have important effects on population growth.Firstly,when a tax rate is given,the proportion of Ding tax is correlated negatively with long-term population size but positively with steady-state per capita output and household income.Secondly,when tax structure is given,the tax rate is negatively related to long-term population size and positively to steady-state per capita output,but its effect on long-term household income depends on the proportion of Ding tax and the elasticity of labor to output.Combining with specific situation of tax changes in the history,the model predicts that the tax changes since the semiannual tax system tend to release more population and cause a long-term decline in labor productivity.However,the rise in the steady-state level of population provides economic base for the longevity of dynasties after the Song Dynasty.It gives some implications to analyze the long-term economic effect of contemporary tax revenues and to study tax revenues adjustment and the reform of tax system.