券商规模与分析师盈利预测准确性——基于分析师跳槽的经验证据

Broker Size and Analysts' Earnings Forecast Accuracy----Empirical Evidence Based on Analyst Turnover

本文以手工收集的我国2003-2013年证券分析师跳槽数据为样本,研究券商规模与分析师盈利预测准确性之间的相关关系以及分析师能力和公司信息披露质量对两者关系的调节作用。研究发现:券商规模与分析师盈利预测准确性显著正相关;进一步研究表明,明星分析师较强的能力会弱化券商规模对其盈利预测准确性的影响;较高的公司信息披露质量也会减弱两者的正相关关系。

Using manually collected data of analyst turnover from 2003 to 2013 in China, this paper empirically investigates the impact of broker size on analyst earnings forecast accuracy, and examines the moderating effects of analyst ability and quality of information disclosure. The study finds that broker size is positively related to analyst earnings forecast accuracy. Moreover, Strong analyst ability and high quality of information disclosure would weaken above relationship.