基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的城市人口规模预测——以大同市为例

The predicting of urban population based on gray GM(1,1)model——take Datong as an example

很多不可控制因素会对城市人口的发展形成影响,灰色GM(1,1)模型通过规避不可控制因素,在规模预测方面展现其优越性、可靠性。本文基于灰色GM(1,1)模型对大同市城市人口发展模型进行了构建,通过相对误差检验、x(0)(t)与x-(0)(t)灰色绝对关联度ε检验、均方差检验和小误差概率检验得到模型精度较高,大同市在预测年2016-2020年的城市人口数量分别为221.21、229.59、238.24、247.25和256.61万人,城市人口增长较快,人口压力较大。

The development of urban human is effected by many uncontrolled factors.The gray GM（1,1）model can avoid the uncontrolled factors which affect the quantity of urban people in predicting.The gray GM（1,1）model also presents superiority and reliability in quantity predicting.This study constructed a developing population model of Datong based on the gray system GM（1,1）model,and defined the precision of this new model through relative error test,x（0）（t）and x-（0）（t）gray absolute correlation degreeεtest,mean square deviation test and small probability of error test to identify the precision of this model.The precision of this model was good through the four kinds of test,and the model could be applied to predict the quantity of urban human in Datong.According to the model,the quantity of urban people was 2.212 1million,2.295 9million,2.382 4million,2.472 5million and 2.566 1million from 2016to2020 in Datong.The quantity of urban people in Datong was increasing fast,and that will arise greatly population pressure in Datong.