“聊城-濮阳”成品油管道剩余寿命预测

Residual Life Prediction of Product Oil Pipeline from Liaocheng to Puyang

腐蚀是导致油气管道失效的重要因素，定期对管道进行检测和评价可有效保证其安全运行。基于改进的ASMEB31G剩余强度评价方程和有限元分析方法分别建立了管道剩余寿命预测模型，以“聊城一濮阳”成品油管道5处腐蚀较为严重的缺陷为研究对象，采用土壤埋片法测出平均腐蚀速率后，应用2种预测模型分别对这5处腐蚀缺陷进行了剩余寿命预测。结果表明：改进ASMEB31G评价方程预测结果较有限元分析方法更为保守；无论采用哪种模型预测剩余寿命，具有缺陷的管道须在未来5～10年内进行维修；管道再检测评价周期不应超过5年。

Two residual life predictive models were established by finite-element analysis( FEA) method and modified ASME B31 G evaluation equation,respectively. After detecting the average corrosion rate by the method of specimens buried in soil,the residual life of five more serious corrosion defects found on the pipeline from Liaocheng to Puyang was predicted by the two models. Results showed that prediction results of modified ASME B31 G evaluation equation were more conservative than those of FEA method. Moreover,no matter which predictive model was used to predict the residual service life,the pipeline with defects must be repaired over the next 5 ~ 10 years,and the pipeline detecting and evaluating period should not exceed five years.