基于VEC与SSM模型的能源效率演化研究——以湖北省为例

The Research on the Evolution of Energy Efficiency Based on VEC and SSM Model:Taking Hubei Province as an Example

运用向量误差修正模型(VEC模型)、脉冲响应函数以及方差分解计算了能源效率各影响因素的综合效应,并利用时变参数状态空间模型(SSM模型)来测算各因素的时变效应。结果表明:能源效率的提高主要得益于能源价格与技术进步,产业结构和对外开放程度在长期对能源效率有提高作用,而在短期则有负面影响,能源消费结构的抑制作用并不显著,上述因素通过内在作用机制共同对能源效率的演化起决定性的作用。因此,注重技术进步,深化能源价格改革应是能源效率提升的主攻方向。

The Vector Error Correction Model, the Impulse Response Functions and Variance Decomposition are used to calculate the impact of these factors on energy efficiency. Then the State Space Model is used to measure time-varying effects of various factors on energy efficiency. The results show that the improvement of energy efficiency is mainly due to the effect of energy prices and technological advances, while industrial structure and openness play a positive role in energy efficiency in the long term, a negative role in the short term. Energy consumption structure has a negative effect on energy efficiency, but its impact is not significant. The factors play a decisive role on the evolution of energy efficiency via their interaction and intrinsic link mechanism. Strengthening technological progress and deepening the reform of energy price would be the main direction to improve the energy efficiency.