对我国财政乘数的估计——基于结构向量自回归模型

Estimating the Fiscal Multiplier in China:A Structural VAR Approach

该文运用结构向量自回归模型,采取Blanchard和Perotti(2002)的识别方法,在脉冲反应函数的基础上测算出我国的财政乘数,深入分析我国财政政策对产出和价格水平的影响。研究结果显示:增加政府支出和减税的产出乘数均为正,且大于1;在短期,增加政府支出的经济刺激效应更显著,在长期,减税对产出的刺激效应更持久;考虑到进出口的影响,政府支出增加和减税都会在短期内减少净出口,但财政乘数变大,这意味着短期内的政府支出增加和减税对私人消费和投资产生挤入效应;财政基本盈余与价格水平呈负向关系,即扩张性财政政策令价格水平上升。

This paper employs the structural VAR model and the identification approach developed by Blanchard and Perotti （2002）,estimating the fiscal multiplier from the impulse response,to analyze how fiscal policy affect output and price level in China.The main results can be summarized as follows： the output multipliers of government spending and tax are both positive and bigger than one; the government spending increasing is more effective than tax cut to stimulate the output in the short nm,however,the multiplier effect of tax cut is more effective in the long run; both government spending increasing and tax cut have negative effect on net export in the short rtm,which means the expansionary fiscal policy crowding in private consumption and investment; the fiscal primary surplus has the negative effect on price level,indicating that the inflation is a by-product of the expansionary fiscal policy.