基于故障模式的输变电设备故障风险分析

Failure Risk Analysis for Power Equipment Based on Failure Mode

对输变电设备进行故障风险分析是保障设备安全经济运行的必要手段,是控制整个电网风险的基础。综合应用因果网络图、领结模型和半马尔科夫过程理论,提出了一种基于故障模式的输变电设备故障风险量化分析方法。首先基于故障案例和专家经验,以因果网络图的形式梳理输变电设备常见故障模式的原因与后果,形成故障风险分析的理论基础。然后针对输变电设备当前可能面临的某种故障模式,确定其在因果网络图中的位置,并依据网络连接关系进行向前探究故障原因和向后预测后果的双向搜索,形成以该故障模式为中心并包含左右两侧因果关系的领结模型,定性的分析该故障模式的发展过程。最后依据故障特点将故障发展过程划分为不同的状态阶段,构建半马尔科夫过程模型,分析得到输变电设备故障风险随时间的变化曲线。基于故障模式的故障风险分析方法可给出故障演变过程和故障风险量化值,使设备的风险控制更有针对性。

Analyzing the failure risk for power equipment is a necessary means to ensure safe and economical operation of power eqaipment, and it is the foundation to control the risk of the power grid. We put forward a failure risk analysis method based on failure mode, with a combination use of causal network diagram, bow-tie model, and semi-Markov process. Fir,;tly, based on failure cases and expertise, the causes and consequences of power equipment common failure modes are analyzed through causal network diagram. This is the theoretical basis of risk analysis. Secondly, for the present possible failure mode, its location in the causal network diagram is determined, the reasons forward are explored, and the con,~equences backward are predicted. This two-way analysis of the failure mode forms a bow-tie model, which can qualitatively analyze the failure development process. Finally, the failure development process is divided into differ- ent states to establish a semi-Markov process model. Therefore, the failure risk is quantified, and a failure risk curve over time is obtained. The failure evolution and quantified value of risk can be obtained by the failure analysis method based on failure mode, serving for power equipment risk control accordingly.