三大玉米主产区农户种植优势的比较分析——基于种植净收益因素贡献率视角

Analysis of maize comparative advantage in main production region of China: Based on the perspective of contribution rate to planting net profit

基于三大玉米主产区2014年的入户调查数据,采用偏最小二乘模型和要素贡献率公式测度收购价、单产、成本和政策性补贴对玉米及其主要竞争作物(花生)种植净收益的贡献率,进一步分析主产区玉米比较优势及导致农户倾向种植玉米的因素。结果表明:单位产量和价格仍是农户玉米种植净收益增长的最大贡献因素,玉米较高的单产水平使得其单位产量上的成本较低;控制物质资本过快增长,将有利于农民提高种植玉米的意愿;农村社会化服务对提高玉米的种植净收益和农户种植意愿发挥了重要作用;粮食补贴政策对种植净收益的贡献率地区差异明显,华中要小于北方和西南地区。

Based on the survey data of three major maize producing areas in 2014, this paper analyzes the influence factors of maize planting selection in the main producing areas, using PLS model and the formula which measures price, per unit area yield, cost, and policy-related subsidies for the contribution rate of net income. The results show that： the price and unit output are still the biggest contribution factors of the net income growth of maize. The higher yield causes the lower cost of maize yield than its competitive crops. Controlling of the rapid growth of material capital will be conducive to farmers＇ willingness to increase the choice of planting maize. Rural social services have significant influence on the net income of maize and the selection preference. It＇s obvious that the contribution rate of grain subsidy policy on net income vary areas. The contribution rate of grain subsidy policy on net income of center China is less than the north and southwest China.