城市化与工业化融合发展的实证分析——基于上海市的实证检验

An Empirical Analysis on the Urbanization & the Industrialization of Fusion——an Empirical Test Based on Shanghai

论文在构建城市化与工业化的融合发展模型以及全面系统的城市化与工业化综合评价指标体系的基础上,从理论和实证检验两方面深入探讨了城市化与工业化之间的融合发展机制。结果表明,城市化与工业化的综合评价指数呈现波浪式的变动,而发展度与融合度均呈现周期性的波动,验证了融合度并非沿着45度射线跃迁。此外,融合度是一个逐级跃迁的动态过程,初期需较长时间进行调试,达到初中级融合阶段后,则较容易短期内跃迁至更高水平的融合发展。

Based on the integrated model of urbanization and industrialization as well as the comprehensive evaluation index system of urbanization and industrialization,the mechanism of the integration and development between urbanization and industrialization is discussed from two aspects in this paper： theory and empirical test. The results show that the comprehensive evaluation index of urbanization and industrialization is a wave type,while the degree of development and the degree of integration show cyclical fluctuations,it is also verified that the degree of integration is not along the 45 degrees ray transition. In addition,the degree of integration is a dynamic process,the initial need for a long time to debug,to achieve the level of junior high school level,it is easy to jump to a higher level of integration development.