山区牧民对极端气候事件的感知与适应——基于祁连山区少数民族乡的调查

Perceptions and Adaptation of Herdsmen in Typical Mountain Minority Areas to Climate Change——a Case Study of 3 Minority Townships in Qilian Mountains

为明确山区牧民对气候变化趋势和极端气候事件的感知与适应现状,对青海省祁连县野牛沟乡、甘肃省肃南县大河乡、天祝县祁连乡的418户牧民家庭进行入户走访和问卷调查。结果表明:牧民对当地近20年气温升高感知度较高,对降水量变化的感知程度较低,对近期牧业影响较大的极端气候事件感知度较高。牧民针对感受到的不同的极端气候事件采取了有差别的应对措施。储备草料、修建圈舍和暖棚、处理牲畜和外出打工是主要的适应措施。牧业服务、贷款支持和更完善的社会保障体系对提高牧民适应气候变化能力有积极的作用。

The 418 herdsmen families were visited using semi-structured interviews methods in Yeniugou township of Qinghai Province,Dahe and Qilian townships in Gansu Province.The herdmen＇ perceptions of and adaptation to climate change and extreme weather events were analyzed.Research results show that herdsmen perceptions in temperature were close to the fact but in precipitation contrary to the fact.In the perception of extreme weather events,herdsmen have a deep memory to the weather events which influence livestock production.The herdsmen have also taken different measures to deal with different climate events.Hoarding forage,building livestock housing and greenhouses,decreasing livestock,and migrant workers are the main adaptation measures.Meteorological service,loan support,and more perfect social security system will improve the ability of herdsmen adaptation to climate change.