2014年西北太平洋热带气旋预报精度评定

Verification on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones over Western North Pacific in 2014

本文以中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的最佳路径集为依据,对2014年西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)定位、路径、登陆点和强度预报精度进行了评定,结果表明:2014年定位总平均误差25.3 km,比2013年略偏大。CMA主观预报24、48、72、96和120 h路径预报误差分别为84.3、145.6、205.4、280.2和415.3 km,与2013年相比,长时效路径预报误差有显著减小。而全球模式在相应预报时效的总平均路径误差分别为88.1、159.6、253.9、393.6和572.1 km。区域模式24、48和72 h的总平均路径误差分别为97.4、188.2和302.7 km。统计预报方法的强度预报整体性能仍然领先于数值模式,而在数值模式中,区域模式的强度预报性能则略优于全球模式。

The location,track,landfall point and intensity forecast error of tropical cyclones（TCs） over Western North Pacific in 2014 are evaluated on the basis of CMA/STI＇s ＂Best-track＂ dataset.The results show that the performance of TC positioning is a little worse than in 2013,with an average error by all methods being 25.3 km.The average track forecast errors of CMA subjective method are 84.3 km（24 h）,145.6 km（48 h） and 205.4 km（72 h）,280.2 km（96 h） and 415.3 km（120 h）,respectively.A huge reduction on track forecast was made at large lead time compared to 2013.Meanwhile,global model＇s average track forecast errors are 88.1 km（24 h）,159.6 km（48 h）,253.9 km（72 h）,393.6 km（96 h） and572.1 km（120 h）,and the average errors for regional models are 97.4 km（24 h）,188.2 km（48 h）,and302.7 km（72 h）.The overall performance of statistical forecast method is still better than numerical prediction method in intensity forecast,while in the numerical prediction methods,the performance of regional models is slightly better than that of global models.