不同驱动因子对漳卫南运河流域径流变化的影响

Impact of different driving factors on runoff in Zhangweinan River Basin

基于漳卫南运河流域3期(1985年、1995年和2005年)的土地利用图、土壤分布图和主要水文气象站1960—2010年温度、降水、径流等基本资料构建SWAT分布式水文模型,建立了基于SWAT模型的气候变化和人类活动对流域径流影响的分项量化方法。在量化分析气候变化和人类活动对漳卫南运河流域径流影响的基础上,通过对不同情景的模拟计算,定量分析了不同年代水土保持、城镇化、水利工程和社会经济用水等不同人类活动驱动因子对流域径流变化的贡献率。结果表明:相对于基准期(1960—1978年),不同年代气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响程度不同,变化期(1979—2010年)气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率为29.39%和70.61%;在不同人类活动驱动因子中,除城镇化使径流增加外,水土保持、水利工程和社会经济用水均使径流减少,且社会经济用水对径流变化的影响最大,超过人类活动引起的径流减少总量的50%。

Based on land-use maps and soil distribution maps of three years（ 1985,1995,and 2005） and basic information,such as temperature,precipitation,and runoff,from the main hydrological stations in the Zhangweinan River Basin during the period from 1960 to 2010,this paper establishes a distributed hydrological model,soil and water assessment tool（ SWAT） model,and proposes an itemized quantitative method to measure the impact of climate changes and human activities on runoff. By simulating different scenarios,the contribution rates of different human-activity driving factors,such as water and soil conservation,urbanization,hydraulic engineering,and social economy water consumption,to runoff in different eras were quantitatively calculated based on the quantitative analysis of the impact of climate changes and human activities on runoff in the Zhangweinan River Basin. The results show that there are different impact degrees of climate changes and human activities on runoff in different eras. Compared with the baseline period from 1960 to 1978,the contribution rates of climate changes and human activities to runoff of the changing period from 1979 to 2010 are 29. 39% and 70. 61%,respectively. All driving factors of human activities caused runoff to decrease,except for urbanization. The impact of social economy water consumption is greatest,accounting for more than 50% of the total runoff reduction caused by human activities.