演变的世界油价及未来发展

History of Crude Oil Pricing Mechanism and Its Development

回顾了世界石油价格形成机制的历史演变过程,按照市场结构和价格动态轮廓分为5个阶段,前两个阶段体现了石油的商品属性,第三、第四个阶段体现了石油的金融资产属性,第五个阶段体现了石油的去金融资产属性。分析了对石油价格有重要影响力的七个重要因素：OPEC组织、上游生产成本、美国商储、货币流动性、市场预期、地缘政治、石油的金融资产属性。在对当前油价分析及走势的前瞻中提出了影响当前石油价格三个最主要因素即美国页岩油气、欧美QE、新兴经济体经济,基于未来世界的油价走势要遵循资本市场的内在逻辑的考虑,预期未来一年内油价不会重演如2009年那次油价暴跌之后的V型反弹,而是经历几个月的低价位箱型整理后开始缓慢爬升到70-80美元/桶相对合理价位。

The history of crude oil pricing mechanism was reviewed as well as five stages of market structure and its price form; The first and second stages reflect crude oil commodity property, and the third and forth stages reflect oil financial feature, the fifth stage reflects oil de-financial feature. Main 7 factors to affect crude oil pricing were analyzed, including OPEC, upstream production cost, US commercial crude oil inventory, monetary liquidity, market expectation, geopolitics, oil financial feather. The boom of shale oil in USA, QE of USA and Europe, low economy development in BRIC countries are the 3 main factors influencing the current oil market. Based on consideration of inner logic of capital market, crude oil price shall not bounce rapidly alike what happened in year 2009,and it will be set around reasonable price range 70-80 USD/BBL after hovering at bottom in coming several months.