电力系统运行状态的趋势辨识

Trends Identification of Power System Operating States

实时监测电力系统运行状态的变化趋势对预防大停电事故具有重要意义。依据系统运行的实时监测信息,提出一种电力系统运行状态的趋势辨识模型。该模型兼顾系统运行点距状态边界的距离及运行状态趋势变化的方向和速率。通过模糊层次分析法对电网运行状态进行综合评价,并依据综合评价值进行系统运行状态的定性趋势分析,实现电网运行状态的综合趋势辨识。仿真结果表明,提出的方法能够有效辨识系统运行状态的变化趋势,可用于系统运行状态的智能监测与评估。

In order to prevent cascading failures and large-scale blackouts, it is important to monitor the operating state variations of power systems. Based on the real-time monitoring information, an identification model for moving trends of the power system operating states is proposed in this paper, which allows the system operators vividly identify the unsafe condition and continuously monitor the distance between the real state and unsafe state as well as the direction and speed of the operating state trends. Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process（FAHP） is employed to evaluate the operating state. The trends of the generated indicator are identified by qualitative trend analysis（QTA）, from which dynamic trends of the whole system can be easily obtained. Simulation results show that the proposed model can effectively identify the moving trends of the power system operation states. It can be applied to monitor and assess the level of security operation of power system.