气候变暖对沁水县冬小麦适播期的影响

Effects of Climate Warming on Sowing Date of Winter Wheat in Qinshui County

充分利用当地气候资源适时播种,是促进冬小麦一播全苗、形成冬前壮苗,为后期生长和高产稳产奠定基础的关键技术。利用沁水县气象局1957~2013年的气候观测资料,对该县冬小麦播种至越冬前有关气候要素进行数理统计分析,结果显示,沁水县冬小麦播种期日平均气温随年代的推移呈逐渐升高趋势,近10 a秋季日平均气温稳定通过13℃的日期较历年平均推迟了3 d。57 a的9月23日至越冬前日平均气温逸3℃的积温平均达到569.0℃·d,超过旺苗指标（550.0℃·d）,平均每10 a升高约8.1℃·d;近10 a该阶段积温超过旺苗标准的年份达到80%。结合各日至越冬前日平均气温逸3℃的积温,以及沁水地区自然因素的影响,在达到壮苗指标80%保证率的前提下,确定沁水冬小麦适宜的播种期为9月28日~10月5日,即开始播种日期较传统播种期推迟了5 d,结束日期较传统播种期提前了2 d。研究结果对指导该区小麦生产和丰产具有十分重要的意义。

Making full use of local climate resources and timely sowing is key technology to promote winter wheat sowing seedling,seedling before winter,and lay the foundation for later growth and high and stable yield. Using the climate observation data from 1957 to 2013 in Qinshui County Meteorological Bureau,the statistic and analysis of climate elements from sowing to before winter of winter wheat were conducted. The results showed that the average temperature of the sowing date increased gradually with the passage of time,the date with 13 ℃ daily mean temperature in the autumn of nearly 10 years delayed 3days compared with the average of the calendar year. The accumulated temperature with the average daily temperature more than or equal to 3 ℃ from September 23 to before winter in 57 a reached 569.0 ℃·d,which was rised about 8.1 ℃·d every 10 years and higher than 569.0℃·d in most years nearly 10 years.Considering the accumulated temperature and natural factros of Qinshui County,it determined that the suitable sowing date of winter wheat was from September 28 to October 5 under the premise of 80% sound seedling.The results of the study had important significance for the production and the high yield of wheat.