旅游服务贸易出口的决定因素研究——以中国为例

Determinants of Tourism Service Export: Empirical Evidence from China

研究旅游服务贸易出口的决定因素可以帮助寻求当下中国服务贸易巨额逆差的解决方法,从而为政府制定相关政策提供理论基础。然而现有文献中,尚且无人以中国的省级数据作为研究对象,进行旅游服务进出口方面的实证研究。我们的论文填补了这个空缺,利用固定效应对2004—2013年中国各省对世界各国旅游服务贸易出口的平板数据进行综合、全面的回归分析。研究结果表明,中国的旅游出口需求被验证与文献中研究的其他国家与地区有着潜在一致的规律,其中旅游目的地的繁荣程度、游客来源地国家的人口总量、两国的相对价格、两国是否签订自由贸易协定等等变量对旅游服务出口有着尤其显著的影响,与传统重力模型的一般性结论相一致。

Examining the determinants of tourism service export can potentially help to seek the resolution of China＇s current huge service trade deficit,so as to provide relevant authorities with solid theoretical foundation for policy formulation. Nevertheless,hardly any research has been carried out to study tourism service trade using Chinese provincial data as empirical evidence. This paper seeks to fill this gap by investigating the impact of various economic,political,cultural,historical and geological factors on inbound tourism. A fixed effect model is developed and estimated comprehensively using panel data of the tourism service export from different Chinese provinces to different countries for the period 2004—2013. The estimation results identify that China＇s tourism export shares the similar patterns with other countries＇ and districts＇ examined in the empirical literature. Explanatory variables included,such as the gross regional product of the tourism exporting province,the population of the importing country,the relative price and the binary variable that represents whether the country has signed the Free Trade Agreement with China,significantly affect tourism service export,which is in accord with the implications of the gravity model.Suggestions are made for stakeholders of tourism and for promising future research.