管理者过度自信与公司冒险行为的研究

A Research on the Correlation Between Managerial Overconfidence and Firm Risk Tasking

为了探索公司决策层的风险控制机制,本文试图对我国上市公司管理者的过度自信与公司冒险行为之间的关系进行探讨。首先运用文献分析法回顾了相关主题的研究成果,然后以金融危机爆发后2008—2010年沪市上市公司A股相关数据为研究样本,探讨管理者过度自信与公司冒险行为的关系,利用上市公司年度会计报表的有关信息进行实证研究,对有关数据进行相关分析和回归分析,研究结果表明,管理者的过度自信使公司倾向于选择冒险性的决策,过度自信的管理者比一般管理者更倾向于利用自己的决策权选择高新技术领域进行投资,从而验证了管理者过度自信是影响公司冒险行为的重要因素,至于这种影响的结果效应如何本文并未涉及,还有待于后续的进一步研究。

With the increasing competition in the market,the relationship between managers＇ irrational behaviors and corporate financial decisions has become a concern. This paper tries to study the following questions： whether managers＇ cognitive bias of overconfidence exists in Chinese listed companies; whether managers＇ overconfidence influence firm risk taking. The indicator tries to measure managers＇ overconfidence based on the listed company earnings forecast system of China,using the manager stock holdings constructs the managers＇ overconfidence index. According to foreign and domestic relative literatures,the paper chooses whether managers invest efficient technology project to measure firm risk taking. The paper uses a logistic regression to verify the relationship between the two factors. Through a series of analysis,the research found that overconfidence managers are inclined to firm risk taking.