东北地区县区经济增长空间格局演化

Spatial pattern evolution of economic growth in counties and districts of Northeastern China

基于ESDA方法,选取东北地区343个县级地区GDP平均增长量和平均增长率作为变量,分析1992-2012年4个时段经济总体增长、空间关联及格局演变特征。研究表明:1研究区经济增长量呈现由强集聚向弱集聚变化的趋势,冷点和热点区域圈层分布明显,热点区域由东南部向南部和西部移动。2各单元平均经济增长率逐渐下降,高值区空间上由分散向集中转变,由中南部向西迁移。低值区呈分散布局,由东南向西北迁移。3研究区平均经济增长率经历了弱—强—弱的空间集聚过程,冷点和热点区域呈现分散—集中—分散的变化趋势,辽中南和锡林郭勒盟区域内单元增长速度较快。4基础相对较差的单元具有较高的增长速度,但经济基础较好的哈大沿线单元仍是区域发展的中心区域。

In economic terms, the total growth, spatial correlation and traits of pattern evolution in four temporal phases for the period 1992-2012 were analyzed using Explorative Spatial Data Analysis（ESDA） and by selection of both Gross Domestic Product（GDP） average growth quantity and average growth rates from 343 counties and districts in Northeastern China labeled as variables. Our studies revealed the following results：（1） Economic growth in the studied region tended to shift from strong agglomerations to weak ones; this was highlighted by the two facts. One the one hand, there was an evident distribution in those regions in which cold spots and hot spots occurred in the form of circle. On the other hand, distribution of the latter ones changed from southeastern areas to southern and western areas.（2） The average economic growth rates of units decreased gradually, whose uniform tendency is compared with the finding that the distribution of valued regions bears discriminative characteristics. Specifically, highvalued regions changed from a scattered distribution to a concentrated one, with migration from mid-south to west, which was in striking contrast to the finding that low-valued regions displayed a scattered distribution, with migration from southeast to northwest.（3） Average economic growth rates have undergone the process of spatial agglomeration, progressing from weak-strong agglomerations to weak ones, and assume a similarity in the distribution change of regions in which hotspots and cold spots occur. That is, their statuses tended to change from scatteredconcentrated areas to scattered areas. Being a different form from the two aforementioned tendency changes, the growth rate of units located in the central-south parts of Liaoning Province and Xilingol League indicated a relatively high level.（4） Units with a weaker basis displayed a higher growth rate, which, to some extent, shows that they have increased potentially and are at an advantage for future development; however, as a whole this finding seems to represent branches of the overall economic pattern in which the rapid and recent development has little effect in this case, so those units with better economic status located near the railway between Harbin and Dalian remain to be core areas of regional development, which has exerted an enormous influence over other regions with resources in ways.