基于LMDI模型的金砖五国二氧化碳排放成本及其影响因素比较研究

Comparative study of BRICS' CO_2 emission cost and its influential factors based on LMDI model

作为世界重要的工业经济体,金砖五国温室气体排放对区域环境质量具有决定性影响,而现有文献对五国碳排放的比较研究不足。本文运用LMDI模型,探究1992-2012年影响五国CO_2排放成本的主要因素,并比较分析了五国关键影响因素存在差异的原因。主要结论为:1单位CO_2排放成本和人均GDP增长显著提高了五国CO_2排放成本;能源强度下降有助于降低俄罗斯、南非、中国、印度CO_2排放成本;2油气消费量上升提高了巴西和南非CO_2排放成本;煤炭和石油消费量下降有助于降低俄罗斯CO_2排放成本;而大规模的化石能源消费对提高中国和印度CO_2排放成本的作用更明显;3综合对五国CO_2排放成本关键影响因素的分析,提升减排技术水平、完善工业减排机制、优化能源结构是降低单位CO_2排放成本、CO_2排放量和能源强度的重要途径,有助于控制CO_2排放成本。

As the major industrial economy in the world,the greenhouse gas emissions of the BRICS group have a decisive impact on regional environmental quality and there is lack of literature analyzing BRICS＇carbon emissions comparatively. Here,we explored the key influential factors on BRICS＇CO2emission cost according to data from 1992 to 2012 based on the LMDI model. We found that increases in unit cost of CO2 emission and per capita GDP enhance BRICS＇CO2emission cost significantly and the decline of energy intensity helps reduce CO2 emission cost of Russia,South Africa,China and India. The increase of petroleum and gas consumption enhance CO2 emission cost of Brazil and South Africa but the declining consumption trend of coal and petroleum reduce CO2 emission cost of Russia. The large size of fossil energy consumption plays a more significant role in enhancing CO2 emission cost of China and India. According to analysis on key influential factors of BRICS＇CO2emission cost,improving the level of emission reduction technology,perfecting industrial emission reduction mechanisms and optimizing energy structures are important approaches to reducing the unit cost of CO2 emission,the amount of CO2 emission and energy intensity. We discuss policy implications for CO2 emission in China.