基于DEA-Malmquist模型的中国沿海地区旅游产业效率时空演化、影响因素与形成机理

Space-time evolution,influencing factors and forming mechanisms of tourism industry's efficiency in China's coastal area of based on DEA-Malmquist model

"十二五"期间国家提出大力发展海洋经济,加快发展滨海旅游业,明确"坚持把经济结构战略性调整作为加快转变经济发展方式的主攻方向"的战略部署。本文运用DEA数据包络分析方法对1999-2012年沿海11省市区旅游产业效率进行测度,揭示其时序变化与空间差异特征,运用Malmquist生产率指数方法分析该时间段沿海地区旅游产业全要素生产率的时空演化特征,进而运用面板数据模型对其旅游产业效率的影响因素和形成机理进行分析。研究发现:1999-2012年,沿海地区旅游产业综合效率整体上呈螺旋状上升态势,其中长三角地区呈现出领先优势,环渤海地区和泛珠三角地区不相上下,呈平稳变化态势;沿海地区旅游产业全要素生产率整体上保持快速的增长,年均增长率为8.6%,其中技术进步是引起全要素生产率增长的主要原因;城市化水平对旅游产业效率的影响呈显著正效应,推动技术进步、优化产业结构以及提升城市化水平是提高沿海地区旅游产业效率的重要途径。

During the period of the Twelfth Five Year Plan,the Chinese government aims to develop the marine economy and coastal tourism,clearly ＂sticking to the strategic adjustment of economic structure as the main direction of accelerating transformation of the mode of economic development＂ of strategic deployment. Under this context,here we uses the Data Envelopment Analysis method to measure tourism industry＇s efficiency for 11 coastal provinces,cities and region in China from 1999 to 2012,revealing characteristics of the temporal change and spatial difference and applies the Malmquist productivity index method to analyze spacetime evolution characteristics for this period of time of coastal tourism industry total factor productivity,and then utilizes panel data modeling to analyze influencing factors and forming mechanisms of coastal tourism industry＇s efficiency. We find that from 1999 to 2012,comprehensive efficiency of coastal tourism industry on the whole spiraling rises,which presents a lead in Yangtze River Delta region,however,Bohai Rim region and the Pan- Pearl River Delta region are neck and neck,a smooth changing trend. Coastal tourism industry total factor productivity on the whole maintaines rapid growth and the average annual growth rate is 8.6%, which technological progress is the main cause of total factor productivity growth. The level of urbanization has significant positive effects on the efficiency of the tourism industry,and technological progress,optimizing industrial structure,and enhancing urbanization are an important approach to improving the efficiency of the coastal tourism industry.