基于时间序列的江苏人均GDP预测研究

Time Series Analysis of Per Capita GDP in Jiangsu Province

以江苏省人均GDP为基础,依据时间序列分析理论,利用Excel对数据进行时间序列分析,寻找平稳序列的阶数,从而建立时间序列分析模型,并用Eviews软件对模型的平稳性进行检验,综合各种条件确定最终模型。最后,把1993年—2013年期间江苏人均GDP数据代入该模型进行实证分析,得到各年的人均GDP预测值,与实际数据进行比较并算出其相对误差。

This attempts to analyze time series of the data on per capita GDP of Jiangsu Province by using Excel and time series analysis theory, aimed at working out the order of stationary sequence which is used to establish a model for time series analysis. Then the model stability is tested using Eviews software and the final model is determined with a comprehensive consideration of all factors. In the end, the data of Jiangsu Province from 1993 to 2013 is imported for an empirical analysis, showing predicted per capita GDP which is compared with actual data. And relative errors are worked out.