基于VB/GM(1,1)/MATLAB的腐蚀管道剩余寿命预测及结构可靠度分析

Prediction Analysis of Remaining Life and Plane Frame Structure Displacement Reliability of Corroded Pipelines Based on VB/GM(1,1)/MATLAB

以灰色理论GM(1,1)模型为基础,结合ASME B31G标准,考虑缺陷深度、缺陷长度、管道壁厚、管道直径、屈服强度、操作压力等随机性,建立腐蚀管道可靠性模型。使用VB进行腐蚀管道剩余寿命分析,利用MATLAB系统编程实现JC法计算结构可靠度,分析可靠性指标与缺陷深度、管道壁厚、管道压力的关系,为管道剩余寿命预测、复杂结构可靠性分析和腐蚀检测周期的确定提供依据。

Based on the GM（1,1）model of the grey theory,with reference to the technical standards of ASME B31 G,considering the uncertainties of defect depth,defect length,pipeline wall thickness,pipeline diameter,yield strength,operating pressure and so on,the reliability model of corroded pipelines was established.By using softwares of VB and MATLAB,the remaining life analysis and the plane frame structure displacement reliability calculation analysis of corroded pipelines were developed.The JC method was used to analyze the relationship of reliability index with different defect depths,pipeline wall thickness and operating pressures.The analysis method could provide a basis for inspection cycle of pipelines,the prediction of remaining life and the reliability analysis of complex construction.