湖北省钉螺村级尺度时空分布格局研究

Spatiotemporal pattern of Oncomelania snails at village level in Hubei Province

目的探索湖北省不同类型分布区村级尺度钉螺分布的时空格局,为钉螺防治策略与措施提供依据。方法将2007-2012年湖北省30个主要血吸虫病流行县(市)的村级螺情资料与村地理信息相关联,建立螺情空间数据库,制图反映各类型分布区钉螺面积及变化趋势;构建钉螺分布的多水平模型。结果各行政村各年间钉螺面积的相关性较强(组内相关系数Intra-class correlation coefficient,ICC=95.7%);各行政村有螺面积的初始值不同(σ2u0=4 766.53,P<0.01),且变化率在各行政村间也显著不同(σ2u1=20.96,P<0.01);初始年份钉螺面积较高的行政村,有螺面积随时间的变化率较大(σ2u01=126.78,P<0.01);行政村有螺面积呈逐年缓慢增加趋势(year=0.64,P<0.01);湖沼洲滩亚型钉螺分布区行政村的平均钉螺面积最大(type=-29.84,P<0.01),且钉螺面积平均增加的幅度最大(year*type=-0.52,P<0.01)。结论湖北省各行政村及各类型分布区间钉螺面积差异显著。本研究将湖北省30个县(市)螺情数据进行了空间可视化及多水平模型模拟,结果可为不同类型分布区的灭螺工作提供依据。

Objective To study the spatiotemporal distribution of Oncomelania hupensis snails in different areal-types at a village level in Hubei Province,so as to provide the basis for formulating the strategies and measures of snail control. Methods The snail data of 30 schistosomiasis epidemic counties at a village scale in Hubei Province from 2007 to 2012 were collected and combined with the geographic information of each village to construct the spatial database of snails. The snail area and its change trend of different areal-types were illustrated;the multilevel model of snail distribution was established. Results The snail area of each village from 2007 to 2012 was correlated（Intra-class correlation coefficient,ICC = 95.7%）. Both the baseline and the rate of change of snail area were significantly different（ σ^2u0= 4 766.53,σ^2u1= 20.96,both P〈0.01）. The rate of change of snail area was higher if the baseline of snail area was higher（σ^2u01=126.78,P〈0.01）. The snail areas of villages were increased slowly by year（year = 0.64,P〈0.01）. The average snail areas and growth of snail areas of villages in the marshland and lake region were largest（type=-29.84,P〈0.01;year＊type =-0.52,P〈0.01）. Conclusions The snail area is significantly different among both villages and areal-types. This study spatially visualizes the snail data of 30 schistosomiasis epidemic counties in Hubei Province and establishes the multilevel model,providing the basis of snail control in different areal-types.