2014年我国生猪生产形势分析及2015年走势研判

Analysis of situation of live pig production in 2014 and judgment of trend in 2015 in china

对于生猪养殖户来说,2014年是困难重重和极具考验的一年。猪价任性,不按常理出牌,旺季不旺,淡季反升,养殖亏损程度之深历史罕见。本轮猪周期规律反常,最根本的原因是生猪出栏量整体处于高位,市场长期处在供大于求的状态。而随着居民肉食品消费多元化,对猪肉制品需求量也在逐年减少,供大于求的局面早在2011年底就已形成。2013年夏季南方洪灾导致生猪价格上涨,很多养猪户却将这次涨价当作新一轮周期上涨阶段的开始,盲目扩大规模导致生猪供大于求的局面进一步扩大。而2014年下半年能繁母猪存栏量持续下降,将直接影响到2015年生猪出栏量,在需求不变的情况下,供应量减少势必造成价格上涨。

For the live pig raising households,2014 was a year with full of difficulty and test. The price changed randomly without common sense. The price did not rise at busy season. But it increased during the off season. The degree of the raising loss was rare in history. The primary cause of the abnormal regulation of this cycle of pigs was that live pig market overall high and the market was in the state of oversupply for a long time. While the meat consumption was becoming diversified,the demand of pig products was decreasing year after year. The state of oversupply had formed at the end of 2011. In summer of 2013,flood in the south led to the pig price increase. Many pig raising households regard this price increase as the beginning of a new cycle of price increase. They blindly scaled up which led to the situation of excess supply enlarged. However the number of sows being able to propagate in stock was decreasing in the second half of 2014,which would affect the output of live pigs directly in 2015. Under the condition of the demand keeping the same,the decrease of supply must cause the price increased.