计划生育如何影响了收入不平等?——基于代际收入流动的视角

How Family Planning Policy Affects Income Inequality?Perspective from intergenerational income mobility

本文利用微观数据考察了计划生育对代际收入流动的影响,以此作为理解收入不平等现状的一个代际视角。文章从家庭规模与代际收入流动的关系入手,利用社区层面的政策规定生育数量作为家庭规模的工具变量,并利用分位数回归考察不同收入水平上家庭规模效应的异质性。研究发现:计划生育政策通过缩小家庭规模增加了社会的代际收入流动性,生育政策的差异化安排可以部分解释城乡之间、民族之间的代际收入流动差异。本文同时还发现,计划生育对代际收入流动的影响依家庭收入水平的不同而不同,计生政策确实有助于低收入家庭跳出"低收入代际流动陷阱",但也加剧了"富二代"现象的发生。

From an intergenerational perspective of income inequality, we use micro data to examine the impacts of family planning policy （FPP） on intergenerational income mobility （IGM）. For analyzing the impact of family size on IGM, we took numbers of children allowed by policy on community-level as an instrumental variable for family size, and fitted a quantile re- gression model to capture the heterogeneous effects across income levels. We find that FPP increases IGM through its reducing effect on family size in China, and FPP arrangements between urban and rural areas can partially explain the differences of IGM between these two types of areas, as well as that between Han and the minorities. We also find that the impact of FPP on IGM heavily depends on family income levels, and FPP does help low-income families move out of ＂intergenerational mobility trap＂, but exacerbates ＂the second generation of riches still remains rich＂ phenomenon.