摘要
房地产泡沫扩散是一个重要的经济现象。本文对我国房价泡沫的扩散效应进行分析,提供了估算扩散效应的新方法。在De Groot模型基础上,本文构建了一个简单实用的扩散模型和与之对应的计量模型,用于估算房价变动过程中城市间的相互影响和泡沫扩散效应。分析表明,大城市的房价收入比之间有高度相关性,扩散效应在泡沫形成和发展中作用明显,上海等一线城市的房价变动对其他城市影响显著。因此,控制一线城市的房价泡沫应成为调控重点。同时,应提高二三线城市的公共服务水平以抑制泡沫扩散。
The diffusion of house price bubble is an important phenomenon in real estate market. This study provides a new method to estimate the diffusion effect in China＇s real estate market. Based on DeGroot model, this study establishes a sim- ple but widely applicable diffusion model, and designs a method to estimate the model. The empirical results indicate a strong diffusion effect in China＇s real estate market, large cities like Shanghai etc. have significant influences on the house price bub- ble of other cities. These cities should be the focus of real estate market control policies. Moreover, we should improve the public services in middle and small cities to restrain the diffusion of house price bubble.
出处
《中国经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第1期96-109,共14页
China Economic Studies
基金
深圳大学青年扶持项目(14QNFC24)资助
关键词
房价扩散
房价收入比
泡沫
公共服务
diffusion
house price-income ratio
bubble
public service
