水资源环境与经济增长:EKC假说在中国八大流域的表现

River Pollution and Economic Growth:EKC Hypothesis for 8 Rivers in China

本文旨在分析中国河流水质状况与经济增长之间的平衡关系。利用中国2004—2013年中国八大流域主要监测断面水文数据,结合各流域80个城市的经济发展和产业特征等数据,依照环境库兹涅茨曲线的经典和扩展分析框架,本文拟合了中国总体和各流域的EKC形态,并分析了未来各城市水资源质量的变化趋势。研究发现:(1)经典EKC曲线的性态并不适用于中国的水资源质量变化,中国的河流呈现出双拐点的S型EKC曲线特征;(2)八大流域的EKC曲线形状呈异质性,长江流域和太湖流域呈U型,海河流域和黄河流域呈现出典型的S型,淮河流域和辽河流域呈现出弱S型;(3)除了经济增长外,产业特征、能源使用情况都会影响流域水体的质量,同时影响EKC曲线的特征;(4)绝大部分城市仍然处于EKC曲线的第一或第二阶段,说明了经济增长和水资源保护之间关系较为紧张。这就意味着某些地区需要通过有效政策打破既有的增长路径,以谋求经济和环境的和谐发展。

This paper aims to determine the trade-off between water quality and economic growth in the context of China Rivers Using the concept of Environment Kuznets Curve （ EKC ） which was initiated by Grossman and Krueger（ 1991 ） based on some empirical evidence. Most of the following studies on EKC use cross-section or time series dat. We find no major contribution using panel data across regions, country level. In view of lack of liter- auture on river pollution and EKC using the panel data, the present study would make a small and decisive contri- bution to the empirical literature using data across dates. It is proposed to throw light on the implication of growth on the status of river pollution and then to estimate turning points. We combine the water quality monitoring data with GDP per capita of 80 key cities located in 8 of China＇ s Basin from 2004 to 2013, and try to figure out the relationship between river pollution and economic growth. In order to implement this goal, the paper selects water quality index data in 92 cities along the key 8 basins in China, in-cluding the rivers of Changjiang, Huanghe, Pearl, Haihe, Huaihe, Songhuajiang, Liaohe and Taihu. Then we combine the water quality data with the corresponding economic and social development of the 80 cities. The sam- ple has a great representative power because it encompasses both developed cities and undeveloped cities, which is the core idea that the EKC highlights. Looking at China＇ s extremely rapid growth, the scale and seriousness of environmental problems are no longer in doubt. From this productive analysis, we can find that： （ 1 ） The conventional EKC model is not sufficient to explain the China＇ s situation, and our results indicated ＂tihed-S shaped＂ relationship which is proposed to have 2 turning points. The hypothesis of EKC is of not much relevance in the case of river pollution. （2） 8 basins show distinct appearance under the extended EKC concepts ; As far .as the turning points are con- cerned, most of the cities have crossed the first turning point which means that according to the tilted S-shaped rela- tionship, there will be an ascent in the water quality till the next turning point is attained. So, it is important for us to note that for the next few years we might face severe environmental threat for which the Pollution Control authority must device more effective, comprehensive and incentive based policies. （3） Besides economic growth, a couple of factors such as industry, energy consumption both impose on local water quality ; （4） Most of the regions have not crossed the second turning point and some even have not crossed the first turning points, which means the tension between economy and river. This calls for more stringent environment poli- cies complementing the desired growth path. The research also has some policy implications. The government should exercise a mix of instruments like Command and control instruments, Economic Instruments, such as price based, quantity based and hybrid, to keep the balance between the growth and quality of water. To achieve it. The current supervising regime based on ad- ministrative districts need to be reformed to systemic management covering the whole basin in order to reduce the re- gional interest conflicts.