消极反馈与高管变更:基于上市公司的数据分析

Negative Feedback and TMT Turnover:An Empirical Analysis of Listed Companies in China

当企业出现消极反馈,改变高管团队资本是最为敏感的决策,可能导致企业遭遇全面的风险。很少有学者从消极反馈的角度研究人事变革,尤其是如何影响到高管的人事变动没有得到足够的关注。本文基于中国上市公司的数据,分别从心理期望落差和组织衰败两个维度进行分析,具体得到以下结论:(1)期望落差与高管变更之间存在非线性关系,即在低度的期望落差状态下,企业会增加聘用更多高管人员,但在高度的期望落差状态下,则会辞退更多的高管人员;(2)组织衰败与高管更换之间同样存在非线性关系,在低度衰败状态下随着业绩的下降,企业精简高管人员的动力明显地高于高度衰败状态下精简高管人员的程度;(3)高管变更还将受到冗余资源的影响,冗余资源越丰富,就越可能冒险地进行高管人事变革;(4)高度落差和高度衰败状态下,政府的支持力度会明显增加,并且政治资源会俘虏企业。

Organizational management contains non-controllable and non-lasting management factors. Especially to Chinese businessmen, they are good at sizing up the situation and are flexible. This kind of ＂flexible＂ will have an effect on the decision in every field of production and life. The firms have the goal of efficiency and maximum profit, and TMT is one of the important ＂flexible＂ to achieve the goal. The TMT plays a leading role during the organization, and the TMT turnover will affect the system of the whole organization and the mind of individuals and the group. The risk of TMT is overall and critical, not as technological changes like innovation whose risk is partial and the worst is the failure of the related project. As for the TMT＇ s visibility, publicity, and effect to organ- ization, it is extremely important to study the TMT＇ s determining factor. The TMT＇ s ability can judge from the performance feedback based on the market and finance. The board members will keep watching the TMT as for the problem of agent. If the performance is not as expected, the board will estimate TMT＇ s past work and decide if the TMT will have a positive to firms＇ future achievements. And this is one of the main mechanisms to solve the problem of agent. It is very hard to estimate the value of TMT as the es- timating system is uncertain and inconsistent, so it needs the visible and legal standard. The firms can get positive of negative feedback to the standard. But the traditional studies have neglected the basis of the standard from the power union of the firms. That is the performance is not only the past performance of the firms, but also what this paper will focus on, the performance difference compared to other firms from the same industry. According to many scholars, their studies to negative feedback were mainly focus on risky behaviors like inno- vation, merger, and the relationship between negative feedback of performance and risk decisions was uncertain, and even a problem of experience. For example, Audia ＆ Greve （2006） introduced a scale factor in their model to solve whether the change or the rigidity was the dominated factor to negative feedback. While, very few scholars studyed the effect of negative feedback to turnover, especially to the TMT turnover. This paper introduced the variables analyzed based on contingent theory （Mone etc, 1998 ）. The Contingent theory argued that the mission of organization was the expectation to firms＇ from outside from the environment level; The managers needed to explain the reasons of failure from individual level. This paper set up a pioneering non-line- ar model that the firms of negative feedback were more likely to take the TMT. The TMT was decided on both inner and outside factors, so it was an effective explanation why the decision-makers took the TMT turnover to strong the relationship between taking use of slack resources and setting up political relations. This paper studyed from the expectation difference and organization downside based on the data of public firms in China, and came out the following conclusions： First, it had non-linear relation between expectation difference and TMT, that was under the lower expectation difference, the firms would hire more top managers, and under the higher expectation difference, the firms would fire more top managers. Second, it had non-linear relation between organization downside and TMT, that was under lower organization downside and performance decline, the firms would more likely to fire top manag- ers compared to higher organization downside. Third, the slack resources also had an effect on TMT, that was if a firm had more slack resources, the TMT would come more likely. Fourth, the government would show supports to firms under high downside and high expectation difference, and what＇ s more, the political resources would decide a firm＇ s development. Meanwhile, this research had contributed as follows ： the traditional agency theory, CEO life cycle and other related theories had been involved the relative research, but only focused on the absolute perform- ance index ; this paper was not only to consider the single negative feedback source, but two dimensions ; the important moderate variables were the slack resource and political connection that played the roles driven by resource a- bundance and scarcity seperately. These conclusions would be an effective supplement to the past studies. And this paper would enrich the study of firm behavior and azent theory.