农产品价格波动时期的空间自相关性分析

Analysis of spatial autocorrelation during fluctuation of agricultural products' price

针对传统农产品价格分析手段忽略空间信息的问题,采用GIS技术和空间统计分析方法,从空间维度研究农产品价格在剧烈波动时期的空间自相关性特征和空间分布格局。以近期波动幅度较大的大蒜价格为例,通过计算全局Moran’s I和局部Moran’s I系数,绘制Moran’s I散点图和LISA集聚图进行测度和分析。实验结果表明,在大蒜价格稳定时期,各批发市场的价格整体呈现出显著的全局空间自相关特征;在大蒜价格波动起伏较大时期,各批发市场的价格没有明显的相关性。该研究有助于掌握农产品价格在波动时期的空间聚集模式和关联性,为稳定农产品市场行情提供相关依据。

To solve the problem of ignoring spatial properties of traditional analysis on agricultural products’ price,the spatial autocorrelation and spatial distribution pattern of agricultural products’ price were discussed from geographic perspective using GIS technology and spatial statistic methods.Taking the recent garlic price with greater volatility as an example,the global Moran’s I and local Moran’s I index were calculated,measured and analyzed.Moran’s scatter plots and LISA cluster map were drawn,The results show that the market price shows a significant global spatial autocorrelation characteristics during the stable period of garlic price,but the market price is not significantly correlated during fluctuating period of garlic price.The study helps to understand spatial agglomeration and association of agricultural products’ price in the fluctuation period,so as to provide reference for the stability of agricultural products market.