基于岗位需求的高职毕业生职业核心能力结构的短期预测——以S省两个专业为例

Short Term Forecast of the Structure of the Key Skills of Higher Vocational Graduates Based on the Post Requirement: With Two Professionals of S Province as Examples

以两大行业对应的高职教育中的数控技术、汽车检测与维修专业毕业生对口就业的职业岗位为研究对象,以企业生产一线专家型实践者为咨询对象,两次运用专家预测法进行需求预测,准确估算两大行业所对应专业的毕业生未来对口就业所需具有的职业核心能力结构发展趋势,并运用方差分析法验证评价预测结果。研究结果表明,高职教育中的专业所对应的职业岗位不同,对职业核心能力结构和水平的需求程度不同。学校应及时了解能力需求方的需求,基于预测分析结果适时调整教育规划,关注存在显著差异的指标。

This study takes the posts of the graduates of numerical control technology, automobile inspection and maintenance professionals in higher vocational education of the two industries as the research object, and takes the expert practitioners of enterprise production line as the consulting object, and uses expert prediction method twice to speculate the demand, and estimates the development trend of key skills which the graduates of the professionals of the two industries should have in their future posts and uses variance analysis to verify the results of the evaluation and prediction. The findings show that, different posts of higher vocational education professionals have different demands for the structure and level of key skills. Schools should be informed of the needs of the demand side, and base on the forecasting analysis results to adjust the education planning timely, and pay attention to the index which has significant difference.