气象灾害对天水市蜜桃生产影响的评估

Evaluation on influence of meteorological disasters to peach production in Tianshui city

【目的】评估农业气象灾害对天水市蜜桃生产的影响,为有效防御农业气象灾害,最大限度减轻或减免农业损失提供参考。【方法】在提取了1982-2011年天水市蜜桃生产总产量、主要农业气象灾害影响因子的基础上,利用统计学方法对主要农业气象灾害划分等级;根据综合灾情指数评估天水市蜜桃生产的农业气象灾害类型,并与实际情况进行对比分析。【结果】影响天水市蜜桃正常生长的主要农业气象灾害为:蜜桃花芽萌动至开放的早春3月上中旬干旱、仲春4月上中旬花期高温干旱、低温冻害和蜜桃第2次速生膨大至果实成熟期7月下旬-8月上旬低温连阴雨灾害。1982-2011年间,天水市蜜桃生产综合评估有农业气象灾害19年,实况轻、中、重和特重灾害共18年,评估准确率95%,除轻灾、重灾评估准确率略低外,中灾评估准确率达83%,无灾和特重灾害评估准确率均达100%。【结论】根据本研究提取的灾害因子进行综合灾害评估的效果比较理想,对农业防灾减灾有一定的指导意义。

[Objective] To effectively defend the agricultural meteorological disasters and provide refer- ences for minimizing agricultural losses, this study evaluated the influence of agricultural meteorological disasters on peach production in Tianshuicity. [Method] After extracting the peaeh production data from 1982 to 2011 and the main agricultural meteorological disaster factors, statistical method was used to classi- fy levels of main agricultural meteorological disasters. Then comprehensive disaster index was used to eval- uate agricultural meteorological disaster types of peach production and the results were compared with ac- tual situation. [Result] The main meteorological disasters affecting growth of peaches included drought at flower-bud germinating and blooming stages in early and middle March, high temperature, drought and freezing at flowering stage in early and middle April, as well as low temperature and continuous rain at the second fast growing and inflating stage to fruit maturing stage from late July to early August. There were 19 disaster years predicted from 1982 to 2011 while the actual years were 18 for mild,moderate,severe and worst disasters. Thus,the evaluation accuracy was 95%. Specifically, the evaluation accuracy on moderate disasters was 83% ,and that on no-disaster and the worst disaster were 100%. [Conclusion] The disaster evaluation result was ideal and could be used in prevention and reduction of agricultural disasters.