基于财务报表信息重构的权益估值模型选择

Selection of Equity Valuation Model Based on Information Restructuring of Financial Statement

主要权益估值模型在理论上具有等效性,但在实践上具有差异性,哪种模型与财务报表信息相结合更有效,受制于模型中使用的预测变量的几个特征:代表公司各期的新创价值、可持续性与可预测性、预测期的长短、延续价值在股票价值中的比重、与股票价格的相关性。研究表明,相对于股利和自由现金流变量,收益变量在上述特征方面更具优势。因此,投资者选择剩余收益模型进行权益估值,能够更有效地实现权益估值模型与财务报表信息的结合,发挥财务报表信息的决策有用性。

The main equity valuation models are equivalent in theory,but they are quite different in practice.Several predictable variables in the model contribute to the effective combination of model and information of financial statement. These variables are： the newly created value,sustainability and predictability,the length of the forecast period,the proportion of the continuation value in the value of the stock,and the correlation of continuation value with the stock price. The study shows that compared with dividends and variable of free cash flow,variable of profit has more advantages. Therefore,when the investors select residual income valuation model to evaluate the companies,they will achieve the effective combination of the equity valuation model and financial statement information,thus decision-making of financial statement information is given full play.