法治库兹涅茨曲线及其拐点:一个初步的测算

Law- ruled Kuznets Curve and Its Inflection Point: a Preliminary Estimate

库兹涅茨曲线被应用于描述经济增长与众多经济社会指标之间的先恶化后转好的关系,纵观中国、美国等国家以及中国香港地区法治发展情况,法治库兹涅茨曲线也客观存在。以香港和美国发展历程为例,可初步测算法治库兹涅茨曲线从进入拐点到法治社会基本形成大体在人均GDP4500美元到9000美元之间,这一时期正是中等收入时期的两端。已步入中等收入时期的中国必须加强法治建设,避免落入中等收入陷阱。

Kuznets curve is used to describe the relationship between economic growth and many economic and social indicators, which is first deteriorating and then getting better. Looking through the law - ruled development of countries and regions like China, Hong Kong, the United States, law - ruled Kuznets curve exists objectively. Taking the development of Hong Kong and the United States as an example, we can make a preliminary calculation that the law - ruled Kuznets curve, from entering the inflection point to the basic formation of the law - ruled society, is generally between $ 4,500 and $ 9,000 per capita GDP and during the two ends of the moderate - income period. As China has entered a period of moderate income, our society must strengthen the law- ruled system, to avoid falling into the moderate -income trap.