北京市碳排放强度预测研究——基于离散二阶差分方法分析

Carbon Emission Intensity Forecast of Beijing City Based on Discrete Difference Equation Prediction Model

碳排放强度的降低是当前我国低碳行业研究的重点.在系统总结国内外碳排放研究现状的基础上,分析碳排放的影响因素,随后详细论述本文所运用的碳排放预测方法——离散二阶差分方程预测模型(DDEPM).随后应用DDEPM方法,针对1990—2013年北京碳排放强度的相关数据进行预测分析,并且利用两种模式对北京2020年碳排放强度进行对比预测分析,通过所得数据,为北京市节能减排提供数据支持与参考.

The reduction of carbon emission intensity is the key point of the research of low carbon industry in China.Based on the domestic and international current research on carbon emissions,we analyzed the influencing factorson carbon emissions,then discussed in detail the use of carbon emission prediction method,Discrete DifferenceEquation Prediction Model（DDEPM）.Beijing carbon emissions intensity related data from 1990 to 2013 wereanalyzed and predicted by the DDEPM,then the analysis and prediction of Beijing carbon intensity in 2020 by twokinds of modes were carried out.The results provide data support and reference for the Beijing energy-savingemission reduction.