基于SVAR模型的中国家庭债务与企业债务对宏观经济波动的影响

Effects of Household Debt and Firm Debt on Macroeconomic Fluctuation in China Based on the SVAR Model

采用1997—2013年季度数据,构建结构向量自回归模型(SVAR),实证检验了中国家庭债务、企业债务与宏观经济波动的关系。结果表明:中国家庭债务、企业债务对宏观经济波动产生了不同程度的影响,家庭债务解释了近30%的产出波动,企业债务则解释了近40%的产出波动。在短期中,家庭债务与企业债务增长会促进总产出的扩张;长期中,高家庭债务规模会阻碍经济增长,企业债务对产出的影响趋于平缓。因此,政府部门应该加强金融市场监管,引导家庭部门与企业部门根据自身资源状况进行借贷,合理控制债务规模,降低宏观经济波动的风险。

This paper aims to prove the relations between China’s macroeconomic fluctuation and the household debts and firm debts by formulating the SVAR model with the seasonal data from 1997 to 2013. The results embody that both household debts and firm debts have different influences on China’s macroeconomic fluctuation. The household debts accounts for 30% of the output fluctuation while the firm debts accounts for 40%,a relatively bigger influence. In the short term,the growth of household debt and firm debt will promote the expansion of total output; and the long run,high household debt will hinder economic growth,the impact of firm debt to output leveling off. Therefore,the government should strengthen supervision of financial markets,and guide the household sector and the firm sector to borrow based on their own resources,the reasonable control of debt,reducing the risk of macroeconomic fluctuations.