中国银行业的“黄金十年”:争论、冲击与反思

Golden Decade of China's Banks: Debate,Shocks and Reconsideration

银行业高额利润曾饱受争论,分歧焦点在于没有选择合适的参照物。根据2004—2015年银行业利润运行轨迹进行多维比较,发现2004—2013年10年中银行利润增速遭受外部冲击且表现出明显的两阶段特征,"黄金十年"与"高额利润"并存。经济增速向下换档、利率市场化基本完成、金融脱媒惯性上升及互联网金融异军突起等,对银行业经营构成全方位的冲击。部分冲击虽不利于银行业业绩提升,却有利于整个经济社会福利的改善。展望未来,银行业需要紧跟时代步伐,积极变革创新,以防止系统性的金融风险。

Bank＇s high profits was hotly debated, the reason for controversy was not selecting the appropriate reference. According to the 2004- 2015 bank＇s profit track to make multi - dimensional comparison, it is found that growth of bank＇s profits in 2004- 2013 confronted with external shocks and can be obviously divided into two stages, ＂Golden Decade＂ and ＂High Profit＂ coexisted. Growth of bank＇s profits is threatened with economic growth downshfft, interest rate liberalization, financial disintermediation and intemet finance. Though part of the threats is not beneficial to banks, it is helpful for the improvement of the whole social welfare, Looking forward to the future, banks needs to keep up with the pace of society, as well as push reform and innovation in order to prevent systemic financial risks.