财税政策、城乡收入差距与中国居民消费的非线性效应研究

A Study of Nonlinear Effects of the Fiscal Policy and the Income Gap on Chinese Residents Consumption

为了验证财税政策对居民消费存在的非线性效应,文章系统考察了因城乡收入差距的第三方外部因素存在差异时,财税政策对居民消费影响效应的变化情况。面板门槛计量模型研究发现,以城乡收入差距门槛值作为外生变量构建的分段函数中,税收负担和财政支出规模促进居民消费的城乡收入差距绝对数最优区间分别为4015元-7016元和7912元-10323元;税制结构和财政支出结构促进的城乡收入差距相对数最优区间分别为0.126-0.171和0.127-0.172。因此,应当辩证看待政府财税政策对居民消费的影响作用,促进我国居民消费的关键点在于财税政策的合理制定与实施。

To verify the nonlinear effects that fiscal policies exert on the level of resident consumption, this paper exam-ines the changes in the effect of Chinese fiscal policy on the level of resident consumption when the third - party external factor（the income gap between urban and rural areas） differentiates. The study of the panel threshold econometric model shows thatin the piecewise function of fiscal policies and the level of resident consumption, which is constructed with the income gapthreshold as an external variable, the optimal interval of the income gap absolute value with regard to tax burdens and the fi-nancial expenditure scale that could promote the level of resident consumption is 4015 to 7016 RMB and 7912 to 10323 RMBrespectively. Similarly, the optimal interval of the income gap relative value with regard to tax structure and the financial ex-penditure structure that could boost the level of resident consumption is 0. 126 to 0. 171 and 0. 127 to 0. 172 respectively.Therefore, we should dialectically look upon the effect that fiscal policies exert on the level of resident consumption. That is,fiscal policies would generate neither absolute positive influence nor absolute negative influence on the level of resident con-sumption. The influence depends more on the effects of external factors. The key point to promote the level of resident con-sumption in China is the reasonable design and implementation of fiscal and tax policies.