基于层次分析法和D-S证据理论的底板突水风险评估方法

Assessment Method of Water Outbursts from Coal Seam Floor Based on AHP and D- S Evidence Theory

为对煤层底板突水风险性进行评估,首先利用层次分析法获得权重向量;基于D-S证据理论的基本合成法则与权重向量,对合成法则进行修正,建立底板突水风险评估模型;通过专家评分获得指标层各影响因素风险信任度概率分布,以此作为D-S合成的证据源,基于修正后的合成法则,对证据源从指标层到准则层再到目标层进行证据融合,得到风险评估结果。

In order to evaluate the risk of water outbursts from coal seam floor, the weight vector can be established through analytic hierarchy process （ahp） ;The laws of D-S synthetic can be modified based on the basic laws of D - S synthetic and the weight vector to establish the assessment model of water outbursts from coal seam floor. D-S evidence source were obtained through the expert evaluation.Fusing D-S evidence source through the modified laws of D-S synthetic to obtain the risk assessment results.